@article{oai:kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp:02000331,
 author = {Kazutoshi Sato and Jun Inoue and Akira Yamazaki},
 issue = {7},
 journal = {Atmosphere},
 month = {},
 note = {Abstract: We investigated the accuracy of operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 29
Atlantic hurricanes between 2007 and 2019. Upper-level troughs with strong wind promoted
northward movement of hurricanes over the mid-latitudes. For hurricanes with upper-level troughs,
relatively large errors in the prediction of troughs result in large ensemble spreads, which result in
failure to forecast hurricane track. In contrast, for hurricanes without upper-level troughs, mean
central position errors are relatively small in all operational forecasts because of the absence of
upper-level strong wind around troughs over the mid-latitudes. Hurricane Irma in September 2017
was accompanied by upper-level strong wind around a trough; errors and ensemble spreads for the
predicted upper-level trough are small, contributing to smaller errors and small ensemble spreads in
the predicted tracks of Irma. Our observing system experiment reveals that inclusion of additional
Arctic radiosonde observation data obtained from research vessel Mirai in 2017 improves error and
ensemble spread in upper-level trough with strong wind at initial time for forecast, increasing the
accuracy of the forecast of the track of Irma in 2017.},
 title = {Performance of Forecasts of Hurricanes with and without Upper-Level Troughs over the Mid-Latitudes},
 volume = {11},
 year = {2020}
}