2026-03-13T11:45:24Z https://kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai

oai:kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp:02000326 2026-02-17T03:51:06Z 1:87

Antarctic Radiosonde Observations Reduce Uncertainties and Errors in Reanalyses and Forecasts over the Southern Ocean: An Extreme Cyclone Case Kazutoshi SATO Jun INOUE Akira YAMAZAKI Naohiko HIRASAWA Konosuke SUGIURA Kyohei YAMADA Cyclones with strong winds can make the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic a dangerous environment. Accurate weather forecasts are essential for safe shipping in the Southern Ocean and observational and logistical operations at Antarctic research stations. This study investigated the impact of additional radiosonde observations from Research Vessel "Shirase" over the Southern Ocean and Dome Fuji Station in Antarctica on reanalysis data and forecast experiments using an ensemble data assimilation system comprising the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis, version 2. A 63-member ensemble forecast experiment was conducted focusing on an unusually strong Antarctic cyclonic event. Reanalysis data with (observing system experiment) and without (control) additional radiosonde data were used as initial values. The observing system experiment correctly captured the central pressure of the cyclone, which led to the reliable prediction of the strong winds and moisture transport near the coast. Conversely, the control experiment predicted lower wind speeds because it failed to forecast the central pressure of the cyclone adequately. Differences were found in cyclone predictions of operational forecast systems with and without assimilation of radiosonde observations from Dome Fuji Station. journal article Springer Nature 2020 application/pdf ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 37 431 440 https://kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/2000326/files/s00376-019-8231-x.pdf https://kitami-it.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/2000326 eng © The Author(s) 2020